[Salon] Russia inherits Prigozhin’s African odyssey

[Chas Freeman <cwfresidence@gmail.com>]

https://www.indianpunchline.com/russia-inherits-prigozhins-african-odyssey/

Russia inherits Prigozhin’s African odyssey

September 1, 2023 by M. K. BHADRAKUMAR

Russia’s Deputy Defence Minister Colonel-General Yunus-bek Yevkurov
(L) presents a pistol as gift to Libyan military commander Field
Marshal Khalifa Haftar (C), Benghazi, Libya, August 24, 2023

Africa, especially west Africa, has a strong sense of collective
identity. Trends in one country have a way of spreading across the
continent. Therefore, It might or might not be a coincidence that the
military takeover in Gabon on Wednesday came just a day after French
President Emmanuel Macron took a tough stance vis-a-vis the generals
in power in Niger.

Macron not only scoffed at the generals’ demand seeking removal of the
French envoy in Niamey and the French troops numbering 1500 personnel
in that country and threatened to attack Niger.

Apparently, Macron meant business. AFP had reported last week the
stern warning by the spokesman for the French general staff, Colonel
Pierre Gaudillière, that “French military forces are ready to respond
to any resurgence of tension that would undermine French military and
diplomatic bases in Niger” and that “measures have been taken to
protect these bases”.

But the generals in Niamey hit back despatching a communication to the
French foreign ministry that Macron’s envoy, Ambassador Sylvain Itté
“no longer enjoys the privileges and immunities attached to his status
as a member of the diplomatic staff of the French Embassy”; his
“diplomatic cards and visas” and those of his family members “are
cancelled”; and, the Niger police “have been instructed to proceed
with the expulsion” of Itté.

It is a humiliating rebuff to Macron. He has no option now but to dial
back his threat. A bloodbath in Niger to vent his anger at the
deportation of his ambassador will be disastrous for France’s
international standing.

Besides, a “known unknown” factor also comes into play which will make
Paris (and Washington) think twice — the ghost of Wagner chief Yevgeny
Prigozhin. This needs explaining.

Although no credible source has linked Russia to the coup in Niger,
its strong connection with interventions in African countries —
Central African Republic, Sudan, Mali and Libya — through the Wagner
group leaves unanswered questions. This of course brings up the
circumstances of the plane crash of Prigozhin in mysterious
circumstances, which Russian investigators now estimate as an act of
sabotage.

There is no question that Prigozhin was an obstacle to the US/NATO
plans in Africa. John Varoli, former foreign correspondent for New
York Times, Bloomberg and Reuters TV (who was based in Moscow from
1992 to 2013 and was “trained as a US foreign policy expert with a
focus on Russia and Ukraine”) wrote a riveting blog in Substack
recently where he concluded on the following lines:

“More than anyone, the CIA and Kiev had a score to settle and wanted
Prigozhin dead… Projecting Russian influence into Africa is a crucial
part of Putin’s foreign policy, and Wagner is the key to this success.
Relations with African leaders are built on Prigozhin’s personal
charisma… Likewise, by eliminating Prigozhin and his top officers,
NATO has dealt a blow to the Kremlin’s ambitions in Africa… Like with
any high-profile assassination, we will never know the full truth. But
one thing is for certain — the U.S., certain NATO members and Ukraine
benefit the most from Prigozhin’s demise, while the Kremlin gains
absolutely nothing. All available information points to Western
involvement and guilt.”

The US-led proxy war in Ukraine has entered a new phase where
terrorism is increasingly becoming a weapon for the Americans to
weaken Russia. It is no secret that the Ukrainian drone strikes deep
inside Russia are backed by US technology and satellite data. The CIA
Director has publicly boasted about a robust programme to recruit
Russian citizens to work for his agency.

All indications are that Russians are getting their act together to
reorganise the Wagner fighters following Prigozhin’s assassination.
For the first time, a Russian military delegation paid an official
visit to Libya on August 22, according to a Defence Ministry statement
in Moscow. The delegation was led by deputy defence minister Col. Gen.
Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, who is known to be the point person for Prigozhin.

Interestingly, the general’s visit was at the invitation of Libyan
National Army (LNA) commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar who is
closely associated with Wagner group, which is thought to be guarding
much of Libya’s  military and oil infrastructure.

In retrospect, it was Wagner’s presence which effectively derailed the
original US/ NATO plans to expand the alliance’s foot prints  to the
African continent via the Libyan gateway in the downstream of the
gruesome murder of Muammar Gadafi and the regime change in 2011, with
the alibi of fighting terrorism in the Sahel region.

Suffice to say, Wagner played a key role in the great game in Africa.
If the Western intention behind the assassination of Prigozhin was to
decapitate Wagner by destroying the top command structure of the group
and thereby vanquish the Russian influence in Africa, that is not
going to happen. Moscow is doubling down and, interestingly, not
hiding it, either.

Last Tuesday, Russia’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN in
New York Dmitry Polyansky told Tass news agency that Russia will
continue to extend comprehensive assistance to Mali and other African
countries who are interested in it. He expected “more evidence” of
Russian-Malian security cooperation.

Indeed, from Libya, the Russian military delegation led by Col. Gen.
Yunus-Bek Yevkurov travelled to Burkina Faso where it was received by
President Ibrahim Traore. The Tass reported, “The sides discussed
bilateral military and defence cooperation, including its present
state and future prospects. They also addressed other issues raised
during the meeting between the presidents of Russia and Burkina Faso
on the sidelines of the Second Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg
in late July.

“The head of the Russian delegation assured Traore of Russia’s support
for the transitional period in Burkina Faso. He also said that Russia
stood by the country’s people in all areas of potential development.”
[Emphasis added.]

Again, earlier in August, Assimi Goïta, the Interim President of Mali
— yet another country which has contracted Wagner to replace the
French troops —  telephoned Putin to discuss security issues following
the assassination of Prigozhin (who was believed to have visited Mali
shortly before his death.) The Kremlin readout said that “Assimi Goïta
described in detail the processes taking place in Mali and told the
Russian President about the efforts of the national leaders to
stabilise the situation and wage an uncompromising battle against
terrorist groups.”

All these developments taken together, the formation of a military
alliance between Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger last week needs to be
put in perspective. Niger has authorised the armed forces of Mali and
Burkina Faso to intervene on Nigerien territory in case of an external
attack, according to a joint statement of the three countries.

Plainly put, the pact allows Mali and Burkina Faso to provide military
assistance to Niger in the event of a military intervention by ECOWAS
or France.  Matters are inching toward the coup leaders in Niamey
seeking help from  Wagner if push comes to shove.

Against this backdrop, on Thursday, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu who
heads the Economic Community of West African States [ECOWAS] floated a
compromise formula on Niger’s return to democratic rule similar to the
nine-month period his country underwent in the late 1990s. The ECOWAS
had so far insisted that it wanted the ousted President Mohamed Bazoum
back in power right away. That was also Macron’s demand. But Tinubu is
having second thoughts.